The headline the Advertising Association want you to notice is:
AA/Warc predict the ad recession to end by Autumn 2010
- But as usual, the devil is in the detail; and what a great, big, evil-smelling devil this is. A few snippets:
- Total UK adspend for 2009 is now expected to be down 14.6%
- The internet, including search, now accounts for almost two thirds of all classified advertising
- [In Quarter 3] the internet’s share gain of +4.2 percentage points is … at the expense of press – which fell by the same amount. [Translation for publishers - the market has not only contracted, but press is getting less of the smaller market]
The AA and Warc forecast that advertising spend in Q3 2010 will rise by +2.8% – the first increase since Q1 2008. Two points here:
- given the history of AA forecasts, take this with a large bucket of salt. The AA are boosters for the industry, you can trust their forecasts about as much as you can estate agents on the housing market
- this is total ad spend (all media). Press, including magazines, probably won’t see any of the gain that probably won’t happen.
It’s pretty cold and lonely up here on Barra today, but things are a darn site chillier and lonlier in most magazines’ ad sales departments.