Latest news from our American cousins. And guess what? It isnae good.
The Publishers Information Bureau has released its 2009 year-end magazine advertising report. It revealed that ad pages for 2009 were down 25.6%, while estimated revenues closed at $19.45 billion, a drop of 18.1%. That makes 10 quarterly falls out of eleven since mid 2007.
Even comparing the 4th quarter of 2009 with the very grim end of 2008 ad pages were down 21% and revenues over 12% off. Does anyone fancy calling the bottom of this market? 2011? 2012? Never?
Down, down, deeper and down for consumer publishers in the US according to the Publishers Information Bureau (courtesy of Folio:)
During the third quarter 2009, [advertising] pages fell 26.6% compared to the same period last year. Estimated ad revenues for the third quarter closed at $4.53 billion, down 18.6%.
That 18.6% equates to $1 billion by the way. So that’s a billion down compared to the third quarter last year, which weren’t no bed of flowering heather to begin with.
Still no respite from ad carnage in the USA. The analysis of the October-dated monthlies by the Media industry Newsletter shows:
As in previous months, ad pages … were down across the board, affecting every category and virtually every major title. Out of 155 monthly titles tracked by MIN, 131 (84.5%) saw ad pages decline in October; of these, 111 (71.6% of the total) saw ad pages decline more than 10% for the month, 76 (49%) saw ad pages decline more than 20%, 42 (27.1%) saw ad pages decline more than 30%, and 22 (14.2%) saw ad pages decline more than 40%.
From the USA:
Consumer magazine ad pages continued to take a beating through the second quarter, plummeting 29.5% compared to the same period in 2008… ad pages were down in each of the twelve categories tracked. (From Folio )
And from closer to home, a headline that really is clutching at the straws marked ‘optimism’:
Worst is over for UK ad market, says Bellwether report. Green shoots are sprouting in UK advertising and marketing budgets, according to the latest Bellwether report by trade body the IPA.
Which sounds great. In fact, because this is the IPA it’s talking up the report’s findings in a shocking (though unsurprising) way. A few more snippets that they drew less attention to:
- companies still had a slightly negative view of the prospects for the advertising industry
- the rates of decline slowed for all the main advertising categories (n.b. rates of decline slowed – we haven’t hit bottom yet)
- UK advertising expenditure is expected to fall 13.3% in 2009, revised [down] from previous estimate of 9.1%.
- A return to growth is not expected until the second half of next year.
Never, ever trust the figures given out by industry bodies.
Household names in magazines face ‘lethal threat’: Group M revises down forecasts, predicting shakeout
Dozens of magazines and newspapers that are household names are under “lethal threat” and could disappear by the end of the year as advertising revenue continues to fall away during the summer.
Group M predicts that the consumer magazine ad market will be down 20% year on year for 2009, a revision down from 16% in March and 9% in December.
Latest from across the pond, courtesy of folio:
Slide Continues: B-to-B Ad Pages Fall 28.6% in February. Down nearly 30% year-to-date; worst since Great Depression
Great quote from American Business Media’s President, Gordon Hughes
“We will come through this period as a stronger industry, a more creative industry, and maybe even a more dedicated industry.”
But certainly as a smaller industry, a poorer industry and an industry with fewer titles and fewer employees.
Hot on the heels of grim news for US B2B publishers comes this news from the consumer side:
Consumer Mag Ad Pages Plunge 25.9%. This equates to 20.2% drop in revenue. There’s no comparable survey done in the UK of actual ad pages, but anecdotal evidence would seem to suggest that the situation for some titles over here is approaching this figure.
For those of you who struggle with percentages, this piece of analysis in Folio shows the scale of the disaster we’re currently going through: Magazines Lose $10 Billion in Revenue
More great news from our American cousins (via Folio)
According to ABM’s monthly Business Information Network numbers [B2B] ad pages for January were down 27% compared to the same period last year. Revenues were down 21%. … business publishers …have seen 29 straight months of page declines and 27 months of revenue declines
This from The Independent: Advertising spend collapses as economy grinds to a halt, with the choice quote:
In the last quarter alone, the newspaper industry’s ad revenues fell 18.9%, with only magazines performing worse, down 19.2%.
And news from across the Atlantic:
American Business Media today said … advertising revenue in the b-to-b space [could fall] 19 to 22% in 2009